WEEK AHEAD

The BSE Sensex lost 136 points to close the week at 57,061, and the Nifty50 fell 69 points to 17,103, but the pressure was more in broader markets as the Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices have declined 1.4 percent and 2.7 percent respectively.

Overall, it was another week of consolidation for the market and the same kind of trend is expected to continue in coming holiday-shortened week too, given the ongoing geopolitical tensions, and elevated oil prices keeping inflation concerns intact, though the market would first react to auto sales numbers on Monday and as we move forward, would focus on Fed interest rate decision, LIC IPO, and economic data points.

As we will enter the fourth week of March quarter earnings season, nearly 200 companies will release quarterly earnings scorecard including prominent names like Reliance Industries, HDFC, Britannia Industries, Hero MotoCorp, Tata Steel, Titan Company, and Kotak Mahindra Bank..

Globally, all eyes would be on the interest rate decision by the US Federal Reserve. Most experts expect the US Fed to hike rate by 50 bps in its policy meeting to be held during May 3-4, which the markets seem to have already discounted, hence the commentary about future course of action including rate hikes will be keenly eyed and as a result of which the movement of US dollar index and 10-year treasury yield will be watched.

Technically Nifty50 has formed large bearish candle on Friday as the index lost all its gains in last hour of trade to close the day down by 0.8 percent, while there was bullish candlestick formation on the weekly basis as the index closed higher than opening levels though the week ended volatile week down by 0.4 percent.

Overall the trend indicated that the index has been in a broad consolidation zone of 16,800-17,400 for more than couple of weeks, which needs to be decisively broken on either side for directional move.

Option data indicated that the Nifty50 is likely to trade in a wider range of 16,700-17,600 levels in coming days..